Mastering the concepts of probability can cast a new light on situations in which randomness and chance appear to rule. With an emphasis on why probability works and how it can be applied, Henk Tijms introduces the reader to the world of probability in an informal way. Lotteries and casino games provide a natural source of motivation, and he carefully discusses these with many worked examples to illustrate the key concepts from probability theory. Henk Tijms has been a professor in Operations Research at the Vrije University in Amsterdam since 1976. He is the author of several textbooks, including A First Course in Stochastic Models (Wiley, 2003), as well as numerous papers on applied probability and stochastic optimization in international journals including Applied Probability and Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences and others

Part I. Probability in Action: 1. Probability questions 2. The law of large numbers and simulation 3. Probabilities in everyday life 4. Rare events and lotteries 5. Probability and statistics 6. Chance trees and Bayes' rule Part II: 7. Foundations of probability theory 8. Conditional probability and Bayes 9. Basic rules for discrete random variables 10. Continuous random variables 11. Jointly distributed random variables 12. Multivariate normal distribution 13. Conditional distributions 14. Generating functions.

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